Posted Oct 10th 2008 4:25PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: EMC Corp (EMC), Stocks to Sell, Technology
As U.S. stocks continue to struggle under seemingly unrelenting selling pressure, tech-sector heavyweight EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) plunged today into single-digit territory for the first time in more than two years. In fact, EMC earlier fell to $9.35, its lowest price since August 2004. However, today's losses are simply an extension of the stock's long-term trend -- EMC has steadily declined since November 2007 under pressure from its 10-month and 20-month moving averages.
The drop into single digits is troubling for EMC, since the round-number $10 region has provided support for the shares for more than 5 years. The stock hasn't closed a single month below this area since April 2003, and it's only made a few short-lived forays below double-digit territory in the intervening months. In fact, prior to today, the equity's annual low stood at $10.10.
EMC pared its losses by the close and settled today 3% lower at $10.12, but the stock isn't out of the woods yet. The multi-year low tagged earlier could prompt some analysts to reevaluate their bullish stance on this once-strong performer. According to Zacks, EMC has garnered 12 Strong Buys, 4 Buys, and 5 Holds, with absolutely no Sell or Strong Sell ratings to be found. This top-heavy configuration leaves the sliding stock highly vulnerable to downgrades or other bearish notes. Any negative commentary from the pros on Wall Street could force EMC to revisit that rarely explored territory south of $10.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Oct 9th 2008 11:30AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Options, DJIA, Stocks to Sell, Financial Crisis
This week saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average register its worst losses ever, extending October's reputation as a bad-news month for U.S. stocks. With banks failing domestically and abroad, and Iceland -- Iceland? -- on the verge of national bankruptcy, it's hard not to feel panicky about the state of the market.
In fact, not even market professionals are immune. On a routine visit to my dentist earlier this week, the good doctor informed me my blood pressure is high (yes, he's a very thorough dentist). My first response was, "Have you seen the market lately?"
It then occurred to me how much worse my hypertension might be if I didn't have the wisdom of market veterans to rely on each day at the office. With this in mind, I decided to survey a few of of my learned colleagues here at Schaeffer's Investment Research to see what advice they could offer you in the face of this unprecedented market turmoil.
Ryan Detrick, our senior technical strategist, notes that "It's all about a lack of confidence." (In light of the week's roller-coaster Dow ride, this seems to be the case for both bulls and bears alike.) Detrick explains that it's simple economic physics at work: "When you see banks going under in a matter of days, no one trusts anyone else to lend to them. This, of course, leads to a huge economic slowdown and in a very quick fashion."
However, he says, U.S. investors can at least indulge in a bit of schadenfreude. "The reality of the situation is, Europe is probably in worse shape than the U.S.," observes Detrick. "It seems like nearly every day Europe is bailing out another bank. We've had crises before, but this is the first one in our generation that has spread throughout the globe."
So, with panic sweeping the known universe, what's a trader to do? "Don't panic" seems like obvious advice, but our resident blogger and senior equities analyst, Nick Perry, finds that a bit trite. "I've lost count of how many times I've been told that 'now is not the time to panic,'" he says. "This bothers me for two reasons. One, is there ever really a time to panic? Two, it's like telling someone who's on fire to 'think cool thoughts.' In other words, it doesn't help."
Continue reading Don't panic!, and other words of wisdom from seasoned market vets
Posted Oct 7th 2008 3:05PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), Wachovia Corp (WB), Wells Fargo (WFC), Financial Crisis
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) have reached a temporary cease-fire in the battle to acquire Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB). Late Monday, federal officials urged the dueling suitors to lay down their legal weapons and attempt a compromise in hopes of avoiding a protracted standoff in court. According to reports, new discussions between the banks and the Fed could lead to a division of Wachovia's assets between the two sparring suitors.
For those of you just joining this banking soap opera in progress: Citigroup agreed last Monday to acquire Wachovia's banking operations, with a little help from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). However, last Friday, Wells Fargo emerged with a financially superior bid to acquire Wachovia in its entirety, which eventually prompted Citigroup to file suit against its rival.
Today's news has sparked heavy volume on Wachovia's October 5 put option. This contract has seen 22,371 contracts cross the tape today on open interest of 57,273. This could indicate that many speculators are betting that the Wells Fargo bid won't go through -- at least, not in its entirety. That bid priced Wachovia at approximately $7 per share, compared to $1 per share under the terms of the Citigroup deal, according to Bloomberg.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Oct 7th 2008 10:25AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news
Analyst Michael Molnar of Goldman Sachs took a harsh tone on the solar sector today, slashing his opinion to Sell on both First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA). Specifically, First Solar was slashed to Conviction Sell from Buy, while SunPower was dropped from Buy to Sell. In a note to clients, Molnar explained, "We strongly believe that SunPower and First Solar are two of the best solar companies in the world and that both will be part of the growing solar industry for years to come. However, in our view, even these companies will face headwinds in a market that is oversupplied with modules."
Specifically, "the risk of oversupply in the solar market will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market," said Molnar. He added, "We believe that liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future, given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy."
As a whole, Goldman maintains a "cautious" view of the solar sector -- and the brokerage firm isn't alone. Piper Jaffray also weighed in on solar firms today, with a warning that higher credit costs could reduce average selling prices by an additional 6%. "The renewables industry depends on access to credit, and for the moment, the credit market remains closed," Piper stated. "We believe the cost of capital on renewable projects will increase due to higher bank financed interest rates, larger spreads, and more upfront fees." For 2009, Piper Jaffray predicts that companies' average selling prices will fall by 15% to 21%.
Continue reading First Solar, SunPower slashed to Sell at Goldman on oversupply concerns
Posted Oct 2nd 2008 2:51PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad news, Ford Motor (F)

Alan Mulally, the CEO of
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:
F), voiced an unequivocally gloomy opinion about the future of the auto industry at the Paris Auto Show. After reporting a
34% plunge in auto sales for the month of August, Mulally warned reporters that "2009 is not going to be better than 2010. We won't see a recovery until 2010." He added, "The [economic] downturn is longer and deeper than we foresaw a year ago."
The auto exec added that it now expects the Russian market to stagnate next year; previously, Russia was the fastest-growing European market for Ford. Mulally sighed, "The problems of subprime and credit crunch are now all over the world." However, he clarified that the automaker's European production plants have the "flexibility" to withstand the expected downturn, and Ford generally has "the liquidity to deal with it."
As proof of that sufficient liquidity, Ford on Wednesday repaid $1.5 billion in debt as part of a routine transaction. Morgan Keegan analyst Pete Hastings told the Detroit Free Press, "It means they paid with cash," rather than drawing on a credit line. Hastings noted, "In a normal credit market, this wouldn't even merit a mention. But it isn't, so we're trying to interpret every little move."
Despite Ford's apparently stable cash position, investors today seem to be erring on the side of caution. The stock is down about 4% this afternoon to trade at $4.37. Today's plunge extends the equity's slump beneath staunch resistance from its 10-week and 20-week moving averages.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Sep 29th 2008 1:15PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, China, Options, Stocks to Sell, China Mobile Limited (CHL)
On a day when many telecom stocks were hit with downgrades, China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL) distinguished itself this morning by scoring an upgrade. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on CHL from "sell" to "neutral," while simultaneously trimming the stock's price target from HK$95 to HK$90. The price-target cut echoes a similar move made by Citigroup on Sunday; the brokerage firm cut its target on CHL from HK$120 to HK$100.
In response to today's mixed analyst comment, CHL is down more than 7% at midday. The equity has shed about 42% year-to-date, and its lengthy decline could prompt additional price-target cuts during the short term. According to Thomson Financial, China Mobile shares are trading about 60% south of their average 12-month price target of USD $81.01.
Today's upgrade from Goldman comes as CHL is approaching former support at the $44 level. This region buoyed the stock in early 2007 and earlier this month, which suggests that it could once again provide a floor for the shares. Unfortunately, though, the stock is also looking up at stiff technical resistance from its 10-week moving average, which means China Mobile might find itself bouncing sideways in the weeks to come. Or -- even more troubling -- a continued drop in the share price could spark an unwinding of widespread optimistic sentiment.
Continue reading China Mobile scores an upgrade, but plunges on price-target cut
Posted Sep 26th 2008 12:57PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Nokia Corp. (NOK), Research in Motion (RIMM), Smartphones, Stocks to Sell

Forget finance -- it's a rough day to be a handset maker. Following a
widely panned earnings report from
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:
RIMM), Finnish firm
Nokia Corp. (NYSE:
NOK) was slapped with price-target cuts from JP Morgan and ING. What's more, Dresdner Kleinwort warned that RIM's weak gross-margin guidance will most likely be echoed by Nokia.
Digging into the various reports, JP Morgan and ING both slashed their price target on Nokia from 11 euros to 10 euros per share. JP Morgan reiterated its "underweight" rating, and said it still thinks Nokia can increase its market share -- just not as much as the company might have hoped. The brokerage firm also sees replacement cycles growing by 6.5 months in 2009.
Meanwhile, Dresdner Kleinwort backed its 'hold" rating and its 15-euro target price, but warned that gross margins across the sector will remain under pressure through 2010.
The barrage of bearish brokerage notes -- along with RIM's disappointing turn in the earnings spotlight -- has NOK more than 4% lower at midday. Today's plunge likely came as a disappointment to enthusiastic option players; yesterday, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) bought to open 25,322 calls on NOK, compared to just 346 puts.
Continue reading Nokia hit with price-target cuts, slammed by RIM's weakness
Posted Sep 23rd 2008 12:40PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Rumors, Amer Intl Group (AIG), Federal Reserve
The shares of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) soared nearly 23% Monday and are rising fast again today on news that shareholders may band together to prevent the Federal Reserve from snapping up an 80% stake in the insurance firm. Apparently, major investors (which could include Bill Miller of Legg Mason) are hoping that the quick sale of assets will raise enough capital to pay off the Fed's $85 billion loan. However, AIG chief Edward Liddy seemed to put the kibosh on this speculation last night in a CNBC interview.
Liddy told the cable news channel he thinks the government's bailout plan is an "excellent idea," and added that he doesn't consider the Fed's intervention as a step toward nationalization. While the CEO believes that the government's loan will be fully repaid, he noted that a shareholder rescue isn't the most likely outcome. Instead, Liddy plans to prepare a list of assets for sale within seven to ten days, in hopes that the divestments will generate enough cash to stave off the feds at the door.
So, what's for sale at AIG? Well, Liddy made it clear that the firm's Asian operations are both "sacrosanct" and "unassailable." The chief executive also emphasized that he wants his company to emerge on the other side of this crisis as a leaner and more resilient version of itself. "It will look a lot like it did prior to 1998-1999, with less reliance on the financial services side," he told CNBC, noting that AIG will instead focus on its core business of property-casualty insurance.
Continue reading Can shareholders rescue American International Group?
Posted Sep 19th 2008 12:58PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, MBIA Inc (MBI)
Thanks to a downgrade warning from Moody's, bond insurers Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) are sitting out today's massive rally in financial stocks. Late Thursday, Moody's announced that it may downgrade the duo's ratings by more than one notch due to rising losses from subprime mortgage debt. So far today, the news has prompted a 7% drop in MBIA shares, and a slump of nearly 8% for Ambac.
In a statement, Moody's said, "Because both Ambac and MBIA are meaningfully exposed to the risk of U.S. subprime mortgages and other residential mortgage products, the revised assumptions are expected to have a significant impact on the firms' capital positions and multi-notch downgrades are possible." Specifically, the "A2" insurance financial strength rating of MBIA's insurance unit is under review, as is the "Aa3" insurance financial strength rating for Ambac.
Neither bond insurer seems particularly pleased by Moody's decision. Jay Brown, chairman and CEO of MBIA, said that the review reflects "inherent flaws" in the ratings company's logic, and added that his company has a capital cushion of more than $3 billion. Ambac's chairman and chief executive, Michael Callen, noted his "surprise and disappointment" at the news, and added that "Moody's ratings actions continue to cause confusion, uncertainty and the risk of material economic damange if their assumptions ultimately prove to be too onerous."
Despite today's plunge, MBI and ABK remain poised atop support from their respective 10-week moving averages. Both bond insurers have endured massive price plunges amid subprime-related fallout, but they've recently rebounded. Ambac now boasts a 60-day relative-strength reading of 381% versus the S&P 500 Index, while MBIA's is 312%.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Sep 17th 2008 12:40PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Options, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH)
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) plunged to an all-time low of $3.30 on Tuesday, thanks to the widespread ripple effect caused by Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing. As Evergreen confessed to a potentially substantial Lehman-related loss, analysts rushed yesterday to hand out price-target cuts. Today, Citigroup bucked the trend by upgrading ESLR from "sell" to "hold."
The bullish note seems primarily based on increased transparency regarding the Lehman situation, as well as a sharp decline in the stock's valuation. In a note to clients, Citigroup clarified, "With ESLR more clearly defining its exposure to a Lehman Bros. bankruptcy, the worst-case scenario is now well-defined . . . these issues appear much better discounted at current levels."
In response to the upgrade, ESLR has added more than 13% today. The shares are trading around the $5 mark, though, which puts them in territory not previously explored since May 2005. The stock's year-to-date loss now totals 75% -- a stomach-churning plunge, for sure, but the stubbornly bullish sentiment among investors suggests that more downside may be in store for Evergreen Solar.
Continue reading Evergreen Solar scores an upgrade, despite Lehman-related losses
Posted Sep 11th 2008 3:18PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Bad news, Stocks to Sell, E*TRADE (ETFC)

Online brokerage firm
E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:
ETFC) hasn't escaped the financial-sector pain this week. The shares plunged 4.7% on Wednesday after E*Trade warned that it expects three-year cumulative losses on its home-equity portfolio to
exceed the top end of its previously forecast range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion. Additionally, the firm confessed that its total pretax realized loss on its preferred equity holdings in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac amounted to $150 million, net of hedges, for the third quarter.
In response to the news, Fox-Pitt Kelton widened its third-quarter loss estimate for E*Trade. The analysts now expect a per-share loss of 42 cents rather than 27 cents. In comments accompanying the revised outlook, Fox-Pitt noted that ETFC's efforts to patch up its damaged balance sheet haven't been sufficient to eliminate doubts regarding its home-equity line of credit losses.
Yesterday's headlines probably came as an unpleasant surprise to the new crop of ETFC bulls. The International Securities Exchange (ISE) is experiencing a surge in call volume on the stock, which has now racked up a 10-day call/put ratio of 6.51 on the exchange. In other words, traders have purchased about 6.5 calls to open on ETFC for every 1 put during the past couple of weeks.
Continue reading Eyeing E*Trade Financial in the Fannie and Freddie aftermath
Posted Sep 9th 2008 10:45AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades
Two days before its second-quarter earnings report, lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) was hit this morning with a steep price-target cut. RBC slashed its price target on LULU from $47 to $30, noting "a 200 basis-point increase in our cost of equity assumption." The analysts tempered their bearish note by reiterating an Outperform rating on the shares.
The brokerage firm's downwardly revised target represents a 64% premium to the stock's closing price Monday. By contrast, the average 12-month price target on LULU is $39.72, according to Thomson Financial. This consensus estimate is 117% higher than yesterday's close, which seems to indicate that further price-target cuts could be in the offing, particularly if second-quarter earnings fail to impress.
During the past four quarters, First Call reports that lululemon has met or exceeded analysts' per-share profit expectations every time. However, it's safe to say that nobody on Wall Street was particularly impressed by LULU's last quarterly earnings report. Since the company announced inline earnings of 12 cents per share on June 2, its shares have shed 43% of their value. Even more compelling, institutional investors have reduced their stake in LULU by a net total of 5% since last quarter.
Continue reading lululemon smacked with price-target cut ahead of earnings
Posted Sep 5th 2008 1:49PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Halliburton (HAL), Commodities, Oil

Goldman Sachs shook up its
ratings on the oil-services sector today, and made a notable adjustment to its "conviction buy" list --
Halliburton (NYSE:
HAL) was ousted from the roster in favor of
Transocean Inc. (NYSE:
RIG). The brokerage firm still maintains a "buy" rating on HAL, but it's pretty obvious that the stock is now playing Jan Brady to RIG's Marcia.
So, why does Goldman prefer RIG to HAL? The former is more strongly levered to oil than the latter -- and, going forward, the analysts expect strong fundamentals and heightened oil prices to support "oilier" stocks. In a note to clients, Goldman said, "... we continue to expect a healthy oil-services spending environment through 2010, supported by low reinvestment rates and secular trends to more complex, high-margin drilling services."
Despite the bullish "buy" ratings on both securities, Goldman tempered its optimism by trimming its price targets on the duo. HAL's forecast was slashed from $63 to $58, while RIG's was trimmed from $189 to $178. The new price targets represent a 44.5% premium from HAL's closing price yesterday, and a 47% increase from RIG's Thursday settlement.
Continue reading Transocean bumps Halliburton from Goldman's conviction buy list
Posted Sep 5th 2008 12:00PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Bad news, Consumer experience, Marketing and advertising
This post is part of our Ads Gone Bad series. Share your thoughts and memories of this ad in the comments, and be sure to check out our other posts on marketing gone wrong.
If Americans are sensitive about racial issues, it's not without reason. Consider the Trail of Tears, or slavery, or the internment of the Japanese during World War II, and it's clear that we've breached more than our fair share of ethical boundaries. But, judging by the reaction to a Salesgenie ad that aired during Super Bowl XLII in 2008, we've also come a long way.
If the upset victory pulled off by the New York Giants in that game was shocking, so was the approach taken by Salesgenie.com's marketing masterminds. The commercial in question featured a pair of talking cartoon pandas, complete with Chinese accents -- a married couple, to be exact, and the apparent proprietors of Ling Ling's Bamboo Furniture Shack. (Click here to watch the ad.)
The storyline of the commercial is not too shocking: business is bad; nagging wife doesn't want to move back to the zoo; husband turns to Salesgenie.com for free sales leads; now, business is great! In other words, it's not nearly as appalling as some old, World War II-era Looney Tunes clips (don't click here if you're easily offended).
However, there was something distinctly off-putting about the Salesgenie pandas, with their broken English and their misspelled "Sofaz" sign. I remember seeing it myself and thinking, "Well, that's bold." It turns out the rest of the viewing public was equally unsettled, and the negative feedback was sufficient to result in the ad being pulled from the airwaves.
Continue reading Ads Gone Bad: Pandas aren't cute when they're racist, Salesgenie
Posted Sep 3rd 2008 11:55AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Stocks to Sell, Technology
After the closing bell last night, silicon-wafer producer MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) offered a mid-quarter update that's sent the shares reeling into negative territory this morning. The report started auspiciously enough, as CEO Nabeel Gareeb noted that current production rates "could allow us to achieve results in the upper half of our targeted financial range" of $560 million to $620 million in revenue.
His comment seemed to indicate that MEMC might exceed analysts' expected revenue of $596.7 million, as reported by Thomson Financial. But Gareeb then tempered his optimism by adding, "However, there is increased softness in demand from semiconductor applications customers, primarily due to their inventory reduction initiatives. These elements warrant a continued degree of caution in our outlook, given the amount of time left in the quarter."
Additionally, MEMC warned that it expects operating expenses of approximately $43 million for the third quarter, up from its previous projection of $41 million. The increase is largely attributable to one-time, non-cash severance-related expenses.
Continue reading MEMC Electronic Materials sinks after warning of weak chip demand
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